Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 86142.969101 90897.219051 95649.439661 100752.737923 106074.573122 111457.287130 117309.697921
2025-05-18 78244.959752 85515.658106 92985.943247 101224.652073 110045.445094 119195.725565 129394.835366
2025-05-25 72380.540560 81348.572601 90765.397106 101369.465536 112956.361697 125210.994248 139129.870908
2025-06-01 68547.150566 78856.716235 89879.334367 102506.079610 116534.098434 131604.461287 148981.817386
2025-06-08 64499.108159 75764.098674 88003.518300 102238.200621 118284.822163 135760.509368 156176.597348
2025-06-15 62185.616103 74398.413066 87855.833850 103714.702966 121818.877292 141767.656581 165334.615716
2025-06-22 59777.360360 72749.898357 87232.688260 104508.807133 124460.218305 146680.753018 173199.055163
2025-06-29 57251.683831 70816.075403 86148.267824 104648.243747 126245.513551 150539.823304 179806.870666
2025-07-06 54933.586176 69002.371435 85091.870146 104715.756847 127858.219682 154133.170514 186063.372886
2025-07-13 53821.180930 68546.487978 85564.331639 106520.739761 131457.753647 160003.136896 194959.690442
2025-07-20 52652.592966 67955.529326 85819.617053 108020.621864 134665.226175 165402.803428 203317.374349
2025-07-27 51231.540100 66990.237564 85568.385933 108864.041187 137055.254214 169822.029237 210522.715188
2025-08-03 49396.332227 65473.190478 84620.939230 108853.382114 138429.431614 173071.145484 216408.526335
2025-08-10 47801.221758 64198.101411 83920.742022 109103.411347 140091.578235 176654.809356 222707.448008
2025-08-17 46231.634386 62896.076066 83134.933738 109201.134392 141531.849685 179950.817309 228658.079919
2025-08-24 45291.055559 62352.319299 83257.553226 110395.749907 144300.154726 184849.609485 236562.963594
2025-08-31 43709.151749 60930.793815 82229.707488 110108.471675 145201.170404 187453.544931 241669.736902
2025-09-07 43070.753203 60703.463361 82689.293381 111675.707222 148402.430651 192879.636147 250253.916283
2025-09-14 42144.553415 60065.298476 82596.045051 112518.699829 150682.958298 197171.668212 257460.435093
2025-09-21 40961.636678 59049.306331 81982.612408 112666.706496 152064.685110 200339.800489 263281.245114
2025-09-28 39804.819204 58031.269276 81333.273016 112738.376488 153326.578236 203346.543749 268903.218898
2025-10-05 39480.131921 58116.476790 82112.537779 114654.488906 156946.502590 209320.800810 278266.157115
2025-10-12 39039.713841 58026.675571 82648.552847 116246.439629 160152.736579 214789.452137 287027.180533